Graduate Capstone Project

Population & Economic Dynamics in Puerto Rico

A graduate research project examining demographic shifts, out-migration, and sustainable development strategies through linked data analysis and policy synthesis.

Literature Review: A concise synthesis of peer-reviewed research, federal datasets, and policy analyses on demographic decline, economic structure, housing pressures, and strategic development pathways.

Anchor sources include migration & aging research [1, 2], Section 936 and NY Fed analyses [3, 4], BEA prototype accounts [5], poverty and inequality assessments [15], and official statistics (BLS, Census, FRED/DataBank) [6, 8, 12, 13, 14].

Demographic headwinds

Very low fertility, rapid aging, and sustained out-migration reinforce one another [1, 13].

Economic fragility

Post-936 industrial decline, lower wages, and a shrinking labor base depress growth [3, 4, 5, 8].

Household stress

High poverty and cost burdens intersect with environmental risk in housing [12, 15, 18].

Population Dynamics

Research identifies migration as the dominant driver of rapid aging, amplified after major shocks [1, 10]. A very low total fertility rate and a rising median age reduce future labor supply and increase dependency ratios [13, 12].

  • Post-Maria migration spikes shifted age structure [10]
  • Working-age outflows reduce human capital locally [2]
  • Enrollment declines cascade into school closures [9]
  • Aging raises health and social-service demand [1]

Economic Structure & Performance

The phase-out of Section 936 eroded manufacturing anchors and exposed structural weaknesses [3, 4]. Wages trail the U.S. average, and a shrinking workforce constrains consumption and tax revenues [5, 8].

  • Lower average wages limit household demand [8]
  • Employment losses concentrated in tradables [4]
  • Consumer spending contracted in the 2010s [5]
  • Small-firm formation & innovation are pivotal

Poverty, Inequality & Housing

Poverty remains pervasive across municipios, with high child poverty and pronounced inequality [15]. Housing affordability is stressed and intersected by hazard exposure in vulnerable areas [12, 18].

  • Cost-burdened households limit mobility [12]
  • Median incomes remain low relative to costs [12]
  • Exposure to landslide-prone terrain elevates risk [18]
  • Targeted rehabilitation & resilience are key

Strategy Lens

A durable path centers on locally anchored sectors, talent retention, and neighborhood-level inclusion. Evidence points to pairing industrial strategy with human-capital and housing resilience [4, 5, 15].

  1. Rebuild tradables: biomanufacturing adjacencies, tech-enabled services, and visitor economy with local capture.
  2. Invest in skills: workforce pipelines tied to employer demand and returning migrants.
  3. Stabilize families: affordable housing, childcare access, and school modernization in shrinking-enrollment zones [9].
  4. Plan for risk: resilience upgrades in high-susceptibility areas; target buy-downs and relocation where needed [18].

Evidence at a Glance

Fertility

Very low TFR

Among the lowest globally; accelerates population aging [13].

Aging

Median age ↑

Aged structure raises care costs and dependency ratios [12, 14].

Wages

Below U.S.

Lower earnings constrain consumption and savings [8].

Poverty

High & pervasive

Child poverty especially elevated; inequality remains high [15].

What this means for policy & practice

Talent

Retain and attract working-age residents via career ladders and re-entry pathways for returnees [2, 4].

Firms

Support clusters with supplier development, export help, and access to growth capital [4, 5].

Places

Target neighborhood investments where poverty, school decline, and hazard exposure overlap [9, 15, 18].

References (links open in new tabs)

  1. Matos-Moreno, A.; Santos-Lozada, A. R.; et al. "Migration is the Driving Force of Rapid Aging in Puerto Rico: A Research Brief." PDF
  2. BLS. "Puerto Rico: A Study of Population Loss amid Economic Decline." Beyond the Numbers (2015). Link
  3. U.S. GAO. "Puerto Rico and the Section 936 Tax Credit (GGD-93-109)." (1993). PDF
  4. Abel, J. R.; Deitz, R. "The Causes and Consequences of Puerto Rico’s Declining Population." NY Fed Current Issues 20(4) (2014). PDF
  5. BEA. "Prototype Economic Statistics for Puerto Rico, 2012–2017." (2019). Release
  6. FRED (BLS/LAUS). "Unemployment Rate in Puerto Rico." (Annual series). Series
  7. BLS. "State Employment and Unemployment – August 2025." (U.S. unemployment). PDF
  8. BLS (QCEW). "Municipio Employment and Wages in Puerto Rico — Q4 2024." Release
  9. Hinojosa, J. "Population Decline and School Closure in Puerto Rico (RB2019-01)." (2019). PDF
  10. Acosta, R. J., et al. "Quantifying the Dynamics of Migration after Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico." PNAS (2020). Article
  11. DataUSA. "Puerto Rico Profile." Dashboard
  12. Census Reporter. "Puerto Rico Profile (ACS 2023)." Profile
  13. FRED (World Bank). "Total Fertility Rate: Puerto Rico (SPDYNTFRTINPRI)." 2023. Series
  14. U.S. Census Bureau. "An Aging Nation: U.S. Median Age Surpassed 39 in 2024." (2025). Story
  15. Vargas-Ramos, C., et al. "Pervasive Poverty in Puerto Rico: A Closer Look." Centro (2023). PDF
  16. ACS S0101. "Puerto Rico Median Age (table)." data.census.gov
  17. DataUSA. "Resident Commissioner District (At-Large), PR – Median Property Value (2023)." Dashboard
  18. West, J.; Rodríguez-Cruz, L. A.; Hughes, K. S. "Steep Risks: Assessing Social Vulnerability to Landslides in Rural Puerto Rico." Natural Hazards Center (2023). Report
Metrics Overview