Graduate Capstone Project

Population & Economic Dynamics in Puerto Rico

A graduate research project examining demographic shifts, out-migration, and sustainable development strategies through linked data analysis and policy synthesis.

i Hover over the map to see county / municipality details
Map shading by

Household Income details

Municipio: Puerto Rico
Centroid: —
Median Household Income (Vintage 2023):
  • 2023 (Nominal): —
  • 2023 (Real, 2023 $): —
  • Change since 2010 (Nominal): —
  • Change since 2010 (Real): —
Open on data.census.gov ↗

Nominal Income trend (2010–2023)

Nominal Annual % Change

Real Annual % Change (2023 $)

Understanding the Income Metrics

The charts above illustrate the trajectory of Median Household Income in Puerto Rico, differentiating between Nominal (raw) values and Real (inflation-adjusted) values. Analyzing both is crucial for understanding genuine economic progress.

Nominal vs. Real Income Trends

The distinction between Nominal and Real income is primarily driven by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation.

  • Nominal Income is the income earned in a specific year, unadjusted for inflation. The Nominal Income Trend line chart shows a strong, consistent upward path for median income over the 2010–2023 period.
  • Real Income is Nominal Income adjusted to a constant purchasing power (in this case, 2023 U.S. Dollars). This metric reveals the actual change in buying power.

Comparing Annual Percentage Changes

The two bar charts offer the clearest comparison of economic growth versus inflation.

  • Nominal Annual % Change: This chart shows the raw, year-over-year percentage increase in reported income. A positive bar here means households received a higher dollar amount than the previous year.
  • Real Annual % Change (2023 $): This chart is calculated by subtracting the rate of inflation from the Nominal rate of change.
    • A positive bar indicates that household purchasing power *actually increased* that year (the Nominal rate outpaced inflation).
    • A negative bar indicates that despite receiving more nominal dollars, household purchasing power *declined* (inflation was higher than the Nominal rate of income growth). Many years show negative real growth, highlighting the persistent challenge of inflation eroding wage gains.

Analysis and Supporting Resources

Economic Reality: Nominal Gains vs. Real Purchasing Power 📉

The charts presented above highlight a critical disconnect in Puerto Rico's economic recovery. While nominal income has consistently trended upward since 2010—giving the appearance of economic growth—the real income (inflation-adjusted) metrics tell a story of stagnation and volatility.

Inflationary Pressure:

  • Although households are earning more dollars today than a decade ago, the cost of living (driven by global inflation, energy costs, and Jones Act shipping premiums) has risen at a comparable or faster rate in many years.
  • The "Real Annual % Change" chart frequently dips into negative territory, indicating years where the average Puerto Rican family actually lost purchasing power despite receiving a pay raise.

Impact on Migration:

This stagnation in real wages serves as a powerful "push factor" for out-migration. When local wages fail to keep pace with the rising cost of essential goods, working-age professionals are incentivized to relocate to the U.S. mainland, where purchasing power parity is often more favorable. This dynamic exacerbates the island's population decline and labor shortages.

Research References:

Metrics Overview