Graduate Capstone Project
Population & Economic Dynamics in Puerto Rico
A graduate research project examining demographic shifts, out-migration, and sustainable development strategies through linked data analysis and policy synthesis.
Employer Establishment Details
Establishment Count Trend
Sector Breakdown (---)
The Economic Paradox: Growth Amidst Decline
A critical anomaly identified in this study is the divergence between Population and Business Activity. Standard economic theory suggests that as a population shrinks, business establishments should close due to lower demand. However, the data reveals a counter-intuitive trend starting around 2017.
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1
The Divergence
While the total population curve continues to crash (Red Line), the total number of business establishments has made a sharp "U-Turn" and is increasing (Blue Line).
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2
The Resilience Signal
This suggests the Puerto Rican economy is partially decoupling from its local demographic base, sustained by external capital, tourism, and federal recovery funds.
Comparative Analysis: Puerto Rico
3. The "Solopreneur" Structural Shift
Our deep-dive analysis into establishment size and sector confirms that the type of economy is fundamentally changing:
- Rise of the Micro-Business: The growth in establishment counts is driven almost entirely by Micro-Businesses (1-4 Employees). This indicates a massive structural shift from "Employment" (working for a big factory) to "Entrepreneurship" (creating an LLC). This is likely driven by necessity (survival entrepreneurship) and the "Gig Economy."
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Sector Rotation: We observe a clear rotation in industry dominance:
- 🔻 Retail Trade (Declining): Traditional brick-and-mortar shops serving locals are flat or down, mirroring the population loss.
- 🔺 Professional Services (Booming): There is a surge in consulting, technical services, and administrative LLCs. This correlates with the rise of Act 60 beneficiaries and the remote work revolution.
- 🔺 Tourism & Hospitality (Booming): The "Visitor Economy" is expanding, likely driven by the short-term rental market (Airbnb) turning residential units into commercial "establishments."